tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 219 United Flight history → ORD 10:19 HNL 14:03 14% 8% 0.2% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 06:30 → MSP 08:04DL 1717 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 13m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 50m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 3h 05m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 08m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 14h 14m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:55 → SFO 13:44UA 543 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 13h 30m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 48m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 39m Los Angeles LAX 13:12 → HNL 16:02UA 1224 14h 02m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 34m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 09:02 → SEA 11:19AS 583 51m Seattle SEA 12:10 → HNL 15:15AS 899 11h 13m 59% 32%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 06:57 → SEA 09:14AS 587 52m Seattle SEA 10:06 → HNL 12:53AS 626 10h 56m 61% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON