Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3812 ORD 08:10 → HPN 11:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4112 ORD 13:55 → HPN 17:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	HPN 11:29	6%	1%	0.7%	83%
AA 4200 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:41	HPN 15:59	8%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 3499 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:23	HPN 23:34	8%	2%	0.7%	75%
AA 3752 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:39	HPN 22:59	9%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:55	HPN 17:15	10%	2%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON