Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2277 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2277 ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2202 ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	14%	4%	0.8%	92%
UA 1486 United	ORD 11:08	IAD 14:08	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1922 United	ORD 21:45	IAD 00:36	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:24	IAD 17:15	22%	7%	0.7%	73%
UA 1128 United	ORD 13:07	IAD 16:10	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 304 United	ORD 19:40	IAD 22:30	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 3902 United	ORD 17:16	IAD 20:12	25%	11%	2.4%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	25%	12%	1.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON