Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4809 ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ORD 15:44 → ICT 17:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
G7 4577 GoJet	ORD 13:04	ICT 15:10	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
OO 4999 SkyWest	ORD 10:23	ICT 12:29	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3538 Envoy	ORD 19:48	ICT 21:49	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4553 GoJet	ORD 15:33	ICT 17:31	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 424 United	ORD 21:42	ICT 23:40	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ORD 15:44	ICT 17:52	18%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON