Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Idaho Falls on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 6239 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:06	IDA 13:47	16%	6%	0.5%	37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 24m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	91%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	2h 50m Denver	DEN 11:45 → IDA 13:25UA 2383	7h 20m	99%	89%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:56 → IDA 12:04AA 6468 · flown by SkyWest	8h 04m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → IDA 12:13DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	88%	83%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:06 → SEA 10:23AS 583	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → IDA 15:25AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	8h 19m	93%	77%
American Details →	ORD 14:58 → DFW 17:23AA 2429	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	8h 13m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON