Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3550 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 3550 ORD 09:03 → IND 11:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2418 ORD 17:06 → IND 19:28 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3550 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:03	IND 11:19	3%	1%	0.6%	88%
YX 4543 Republic	ORD 06:45	IND 08:55	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:24	IND 10:39	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:44	IND 13:58	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:13	IND 15:37	5%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	IND 22:05	5%	2%	0.6%	76%
AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:53	IND 23:07	6%	2%	0.6%	66%
YX 3693 Republic	ORD 21:47	IND 00:07	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4547 Republic	ORD 07:02	IND 08:53	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 3308 Republic	ORD 12:20	IND 14:29	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3499 Republic	ORD 15:34	IND 17:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5582 SkyWest	ORD 06:12	IND 08:38	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:07	IND 20:05	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
AA 625 American	ORD 09:57	IND 12:09	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 473 United	ORD 10:19	IND 12:22	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5014 SkyWest	ORD 09:49	IND 11:57	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:33	IND 16:43	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2418 American	ORD 17:06	IND 19:28	16%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON