Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4459 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 4459 ORD 08:35 → JAX 12:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5632 ORD 18:37 → JAX 22:07 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4459 Republic	ORD 08:35	JAX 12:15	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:29	JAX 11:11	18%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:30	JAX 18:07	18%	6%	1.1%	80%
UA 1113 United	ORD 10:39	JAX 14:10	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 1284 United	ORD 15:28	JAX 18:50	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 3173 American	ORD 19:00	JAX 22:25	26%	12%	1.7%	no record
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:37	JAX 22:07	27%	13%	4.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON