Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 5662 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 5662 ORD 05:58 → JFK 09:18 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2224 ORD 16:03 → JFK 19:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5662 Republic	ORD 05:58	JFK 09:18	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:02	JFK 11:33	6%	2%	0.6%	70%
B6 1006 JetBlue	ORD 10:59	JFK 14:16	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2485 American Flight history →	ORD 13:39	JFK 17:05	19%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 3225 American	ORD 11:30	JFK 14:44	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2224 American	ORD 16:03	JFK 19:35	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:05	JFK 13:30	27%	16%	6.2%	73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:00	JFK 16:37	29%	14%	11.6%	71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:00	JFK 21:40	51%	22%	23.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON