Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 3647 ORD 13:16 → LAS 15:26 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	10%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 2169 American	ORD 06:54	LAS 09:03	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 1803 United	ORD 11:09	LAS 13:08	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:54	LAS 17:57	22%	8%	0.7%	75%
UA 2811 United	ORD 09:08	LAS 10:57	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1497 American	ORD 10:05	LAS 12:05	23%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 704 United	ORD 13:42	LAS 15:39	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 365 United	ORD 16:51	LAS 18:50	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 777 United Flight history →	ORD 20:26	LAS 22:15	25%	9%	0.9%	76%
AA 3323 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	LAS 23:01	27%	11%	1.7%	58%
AA 1475 American	ORD 13:44	LAS 15:46	29%	9%	1.5%	no record
UA 1703 United	ORD 18:17	LAS 20:06	31%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	LAS 19:29	31%	15%	4.6%	58%
F9 3647 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:16	LAS 15:26	32%	11%	2.8%	46%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	49m Denver	DEN 09:44 → LAS 10:48UA 1767	5h 43m	83%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON