Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 607 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 607 ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2364 ORD 19:08 → LAX 21:33 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	11%	3%	1.2%	88%
AA 1009 American	ORD 06:59	LAX 09:33	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:25	12%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	14%	5%	0.8%	90%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	15%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	18%	7%	0.6%	68%
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	18%	8%	0.7%	83%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	19%	9%	0.6%	80%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:09	LAX 14:37	19%	7%	1.0%	79%
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:50	LAX 16:25	19%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 2170 United	ORD 11:02	LAX 13:07	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	21%	10%	0.7%	76%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	21%	10%	0.8%	58%
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	21%	6%	0.8%	82%
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAX 11:21	22%	6%	1.2%	74%
UA 542 United	ORD 14:52	LAX 17:07	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	23%	4%	1.3%	70%
AA 1114 American	ORD 21:12	LAX 23:31	24%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 2494 United	ORD 16:56	LAX 19:22	24%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	25%	10%	1.0%	59%
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 19:03	LAX 21:28	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:42	26%	13%	1.4%	69%
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:48	LAX 22:13	27%	9%	1.2%	58%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	28%	10%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON