Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2767 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2767 ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2458 ORD 18:25 → LGA 21:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2767 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:09	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:11	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 1264 American Flight history →	ORD 05:54	LGA 09:00	6%	2%	0.7%	62%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:14	7%	2%	0.7%	77%
UA 1657 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 2723 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:16	8%	2%	0.7%	79%
AA 2941 American	ORD 08:16	LGA 11:43	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1642 Delta	ORD 09:32	LGA 12:46	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2092 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LGA 11:17	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:30	LGA 15:00	12%	3%	0.7%	78%
UA 669 United Flight history →	ORD 10:03	LGA 13:26	13%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LGA 13:48	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1258 United Flight history →	ORD 09:20	LGA 12:33	13%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 3128 American Flight history →	ORD 10:04	LGA 13:23	14%	3%	0.7%	71%
UA 529 United	ORD 11:12	LGA 14:33	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 786 United	ORD 12:12	LGA 15:25	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 903 American	ORD 11:55	LGA 15:09	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3163 American Flight history →	ORD 12:49	LGA 16:17	20%	5%	0.7%	68%
DL 1631 Delta	ORD 14:32	LGA 17:45	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2189 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LGA 16:22	22%	6%	0.7%	65%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:05	LGA 22:34	24%	6%	0.8%	64%
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	24%	7%	0.7%	65%
AA 866 American	ORD 15:14	LGA 18:42	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:39	LGA 20:53	25%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 512 American	ORD 15:31	LGA 18:50	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2133 United	ORD 14:56	LGA 18:07	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 511 United	ORD 16:16	LGA 19:34	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 673 American Flight history →	ORD 16:42	LGA 20:12	28%	8%	0.7%	47%
UA 456 United	ORD 17:16	LGA 20:34	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 774 American Flight history →	ORD 18:04	LGA 21:22	33%	9%	0.7%	58%
UA 2458 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	LGA 21:34	35%	9%	0.7%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON