Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 14m	84%	73%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 18:14 → LGB 20:51AS 1310	9h 50m	92%	67%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:57 → SEA 09:14AS 587	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 11:19 → LGB 13:57AS 717	9h 00m	93%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON