Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3545 at 12:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3545 ORD 12:15 → MCI 13:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 8184 ORD 20:34 → MCI 22:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3545 Envoy	ORD 12:15	MCI 13:59	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4384 Republic	ORD 22:35	MCI 00:16	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5717 SkyWest	ORD 07:39	MCI 09:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1484 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MCI 10:29	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:11	MCI 08:54	8%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	9%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 5997 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:53	MCI 12:40	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 6215 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:20	MCI 12:04	10%	3%	0.7%	57%
MQ 3764 Envoy	ORD 13:52	MCI 15:18	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5644 SkyWest	ORD 14:35	MCI 16:22	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5712 SkyWest	ORD 18:18	MCI 20:07	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	15%	5%	0.5%	68%
OO 6304 SkyWest	ORD 17:17	MCI 18:51	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1884 United Flight history →	ORD 20:06	MCI 21:36	22%	6%	0.5%	52%
UA 8184 United	ORD 20:34	MCI 22:09	22%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON