Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2280 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2280 ORD 07:20 → MCO 11:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3176 ORD 18:45 → MCO 22:40 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	7%	2%	0.9%	89%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	9%	3%	2.1%	85%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:12	MCO 10:55	11%	2%	2.2%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	11%	5%	2.1%	75%
AA 3293 American	ORD 10:34	MCO 14:26	15%	4%	3.2%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 12:02	MCO 15:55	18%	6%	4.4%	46%
UA 1929 United	ORD 15:29	MCO 19:05	19%	8%	3.0%	no record
UA 2620 United	ORD 13:07	MCO 16:52	21%	6%	4.4%	no record
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:46	MCO 18:35	22%	7%	3.0%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	24%	10%	5.3%	73%
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 19:05	25%	9%	5.1%	62%
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	29%	10%	5.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON