Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5581 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 5581 ORD 06:50 → MDT 09:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 1719 ORD 19:22 → MDT 22:09 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:50	MDT 09:45	11%	3%	1.7%	77%
YX 3544 Republic	ORD 10:46	MDT 13:51	13%	3%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	ORD 08:38	MDT 11:43	18%	4%	2.6%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	ORD 16:00	MDT 19:05	24%	8%	2.4%	75%
UA 533 United	ORD 14:07	MDT 17:02	25%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2400 American	ORD 19:04	MDT 22:21	26%	10%	2.2%	no record
UA 1719 United	ORD 19:22	MDT 22:09	30%	10%	1.4%	no record
UA 4173 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	MDT 19:48	26%	15%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON