Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3959 ORD 08:24 → MEM 10:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2317 ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3959 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:24	MEM 10:20	7%	1%	0.7%	95%
YX 4594 Republic	ORD 17:26	MEM 19:21	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3945 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	MEM 00:18	9%	2%	0.7%	71%
UA 5593 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MEM 11:05	9%	3%	0.5%	78%
UA 5414 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MEM 14:42	12%	4%	0.5%	72%
OO 6042 SkyWest	ORD 16:02	MEM 17:56	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 5193 SkyWest	ORD 15:37	MEM 17:30	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2317 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MEM 23:21	13%	4%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON