Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3921 ORD 08:29 → MHT 12:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 4149 ORD 20:00 → MHT 23:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3921 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:29	MHT 12:03	7%	1%	0.6%	78%
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:50	MHT 17:14	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 4149 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:00	MHT 23:30	11%	2%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON