Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3040 ORD 17:33 → MIA 21:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2984 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	MIA 09:09	7%	2%	1.6%	94%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	ORD 06:01	MIA 10:24	10%	2%	1.3%	96%
UA 1358 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MIA 11:24	14%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 1875 American Flight history →	ORD 07:03	MIA 11:25	16%	3%	1.3%	88%
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MIA 14:57	21%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 1159 American	ORD 19:04	MIA 23:26	23%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 1250 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	MIA 12:45	23%	4%	1.3%	75%
AA 2689 American	ORD 09:59	MIA 14:09	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1431 American Flight history →	ORD 14:01	MIA 18:23	27%	9%	1.2%	77%
AA 2323 American Flight history →	ORD 16:37	MIA 21:02	29%	11%	1.7%	61%
AA 3040 American	ORD 17:33	MIA 21:58	30%	12%	4.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON