Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 5838 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day OO 5838 ORD 06:09 → MKE 07:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4096 ORD 17:22 → MKE 18:11 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5838 SkyWest	ORD 06:09	MKE 07:27	14%	5%	2.5%	no record
OO 4984 SkyWest	ORD 07:17	MKE 08:20	19%	6%	3.5%	no record
MQ 4018 Envoy	ORD 10:09	MKE 10:58	21%	3%	2.2%	no record
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:48	MKE 11:50	22%	7%	2.6%	77%
MQ 4035 Envoy	ORD 13:33	MKE 14:39	23%	5%	2.2%	no record
OO 757 SkyWest	ORD 22:00	MKE 22:49	24%	7%	4.6%	no record
AA 6257 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:12	MKE 22:13	25%	8%	4.1%	44%
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MKE 20:56	25%	8%	4.5%	70%
UA 5821 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:18	MKE 10:26	26%	7%	3.0%	73%
OO 4990 SkyWest	ORD 11:39	MKE 12:28	26%	9%	2.9%	no record
OO 4909 SkyWest	ORD 19:16	MKE 20:22	26%	8%	4.5%	no record
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:29	MKE 15:29	28%	10%	2.8%	66%
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:36	28%	9%	2.8%	67%
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MKE 18:48	28%	12%	7.4%	52%
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:53	MKE 17:58	28%	9%	4.3%	76%
OO 5196 SkyWest	ORD 18:32	MKE 19:29	29%	11%	5.9%	no record
MQ 4096 Envoy	ORD 17:22	MKE 18:11	31%	8%	6.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON