Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4048 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4048 ORD 07:20 → MSN 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1251 ORD 21:23 → MSN 22:18 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4048 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MSN 08:23	6%	2%	1.2%	85%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:41	MSN 14:41	8%	2%	0.8%	82%
AA 3953 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:22	MSN 18:44	9%	3%	0.9%	73%
AA 4045 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:59	MSN 23:59	9%	3%	0.9%	69%
MQ 4217 Envoy	ORD 20:52	MSN 21:56	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:38	MSN 12:44	11%	6%	0.9%	74%
G7 4382 GoJet	ORD 09:04	MSN 10:12	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2349 United	ORD 12:33	MSN 13:28	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4737 SkyWest	ORD 10:35	MSN 11:35	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1595 United	ORD 14:16	MSN 15:13	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5530 SkyWest	ORD 15:55	MSN 16:55	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:09	MSN 19:09	18%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MSN 20:41	20%	7%	0.6%	62%
UA 1251 United	ORD 21:23	MSN 22:18	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON