Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 3697 Envoy	ORD 10:16	MSO 13:16	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1180 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MSO 11:32	6%	3%	0.5%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 51m Denver	DEN 11:33 → MSO 13:42UA 2357	8h 42m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	6h 50m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:03 → MSO 12:40DL 1723	5h 55m	86%	79%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	2h 59m Denver	DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092	8h 06m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:59 → SEA 08:25AS 587	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → MSO 12:30AS 2230 · flown by Horizon	7h 31m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:06 → SEA 10:23AS 583	2h 25m Seattle	SEA 12:48 → MSO 15:17AS 660	8h 11m	94%	71%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 20:29 → MSO 22:53AS 1435	8h 10m	94%	68%
United Details →	ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:51UA 246	3h 24m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest	10h 28m	100%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON