Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2028 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2028 ORD 06:14 → MSP 07:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2865 ORD 18:52 → MSP 20:11 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2028 Delta	ORD 06:14	MSP 07:41	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2232 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MSP 08:41	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:15	MSP 10:01	16%	4%	2.2%	91%
MQ 3551 Envoy	ORD 08:38	MSP 10:34	17%	4%	2.2%	no record
UA 2805 United Flight history →	ORD 08:44	MSP 10:30	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	ORD 12:27	MSP 14:10	18%	6%	0.9%	67%
UA 215 United Flight history →	ORD 10:46	MSP 12:22	18%	5%	0.6%	79%
MQ 4228 Envoy	ORD 15:01	MSP 16:31	21%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 1935 United Flight history →	ORD 16:16	MSP 18:09	22%	11%	0.6%	70%
UA 467 United Flight history →	ORD 12:55	MSP 14:33	22%	8%	0.7%	70%
DL 724 Delta	ORD 08:31	MSP 09:59	22%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:55	MSP 17:40	22%	9%	1.0%	62%
UA 2298 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MSP 16:13	23%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 2472 American	ORD 16:04	MSP 18:03	25%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 2005 United Flight history →	ORD 19:57	MSP 21:41	26%	11%	0.8%	58%
AA 2448 American	ORD 11:33	MSP 13:06	26%	8%	0.8%	no record
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:54	MSP 19:31	28%	13%	2.1%	51%
AA 1048 American	ORD 22:28	MSP 00:00	28%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 2865 United Flight history →	ORD 18:52	MSP 20:11	41%	14%	2.4%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON