Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2778 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:23 → MSY 09:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3256 ORD 21:09 → MSY 23:32 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:23	MSY 09:41	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 4040 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:26	MSY 10:47	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 1532 United	ORD 10:59	MSY 13:27	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:26	MSY 17:03	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:52	MSY 23:15	16%	5%	0.6%	63%
AA 3256 American	ORD 21:09	MSY 23:32	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON