tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3526 at 12:14, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3526 Republic ORD 12:14 MYR 15:37 17% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 6h 30m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 1h 56m Charlotte CLT 10:06 → MYR 11:14AA 2431 5h 07m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970 2h 48m Philadelphia PHL 10:53 → MYR 13:02AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 7h 02m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093 6h 47m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 09:05 → CLT 12:12AA 2080 3h 48m Charlotte CLT 16:00 → MYR 17:11AA 2943 7h 06m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:31AA 1409 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 19:56 → MYR 21:04AA 1085 6h 43m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 1h 38m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 6h 12m 92% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743 1h 25m Philadelphia PHL 16:19 → MYR 18:20AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont 5h 47m 86% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON