Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 15:43, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	2h 20m Seattle	SEA 20:42 → OAK 22:45AS 706	9h 02m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	46m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	7h 11m	78%	76%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:59 → SEA 08:25AS 587	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03AS 533	9h 04m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 16:42 → OAK 18:45AS 1328	7h 44m	78%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON