Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4042 at 08:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4042 ORD 08:21 → OMA 10:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 2336 ORD 21:13 → OMA 22:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:21	OMA 10:11	6%	2%	0.6%	74%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 10:18	OMA 12:08	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	9%	3%	0.5%	87%
MQ 3712 Envoy	ORD 18:47	OMA 20:25	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 10:49	OMA 12:35	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6314 SkyWest	ORD 13:22	OMA 15:05	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	12%	4%	0.5%	78%
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 17:47	OMA 19:23	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	14%	4%	0.5%	72%
AA 3334 American Flight history →	ORD 22:34	OMA 00:09	19%	6%	0.6%	32%
UA 2336 United	ORD 21:13	OMA 22:44	20%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON