tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 26% 12% 0.9% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 47m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → ONT 12:01AA 2956 9h 01m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 28m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 07m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 31m 85% 80%
FrontierDetails → ORD 16:37 → DEN 18:33F9 1483 3h 56m Denver DEN 22:29 → ONT 23:50F9 1261 9h 13m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 08m 89% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 1h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → ONT 12:20AA 2661 6h 55m 90% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 49m San Francisco SFO 19:07 → ONT 20:42UA 2478 7h 16m 63% 53%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579 58m Seattle SEA 16:40 → ONT 19:00AS 592 7h 59m 68% 51%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:06 → SEA 10:23AS 583 1h 06m Seattle SEA 11:29 → ONT 13:59AS 571 7h 53m 68% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON