Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4448 ORD 08:11 → ORF 11:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4164 ORD 14:52 → ORF 18:16 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4448 Republic	ORD 08:11	ORF 11:41	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 3664 Republic	ORD 09:04	ORF 12:39	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
YX 3607 Republic	ORD 18:16	ORF 21:48	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2807 United Flight history →	ORD 12:09	ORF 15:27	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:52	ORF 18:16	11%	2%	0.7%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON