Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2300 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 2300 ORD 07:00 → PDX 09:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1818 ORD 17:04 → PDX 19:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2300 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	PDX 09:34	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 751 United	ORD 09:08	PDX 11:43	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1713 American	ORD 08:17	PDX 11:09	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1554 United Flight history →	ORD 13:42	PDX 16:06	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AS 325 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:12	PDX 16:47	12%	2%	0.7%	72%
UA 8277 United	ORD 16:36	PDX 19:03	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1818 American Flight history →	ORD 17:04	PDX 19:50	15%	4%	0.7%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 25m	92%	86%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon	6h 34m	76%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON