Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2970 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2970 ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1848 ORD 17:07 → PHL 20:25 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2970 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHL 08:05	7%	2%	1.5%	90%
AA 471 American Flight history →	ORD 06:33	PHL 09:57	11%	3%	1.4%	80%
UA 2856 United	ORD 07:06	PHL 10:07	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 729 United Flight history →	ORD 09:27	PHL 12:34	18%	6%	0.9%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	ORD 11:33	PHL 14:47	18%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 1743 American Flight history →	ORD 11:40	PHL 14:54	21%	7%	1.3%	74%
AA 1725 American	ORD 08:53	PHL 12:03	21%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 532 American Flight history →	ORD 20:14	PHL 23:35	23%	8%	1.5%	62%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	PHL 17:52	23%	9%	0.8%	69%
AA 1393 American	ORD 16:02	PHL 19:31	25%	10%	1.8%	no record
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ORD 16:34	PHL 19:48	25%	10%	0.9%	69%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	ORD 14:54	PHL 18:11	27%	9%	1.2%	71%
AA 830 American	ORD 13:19	PHL 16:47	27%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 597 American	ORD 17:50	PHL 21:19	28%	12%	4.2%	no record
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	29%	13%	1.8%	61%
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHL 20:25	31%	12%	4.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON