Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2989 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2989 ORD 05:04 → PHX 06:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3137 ORD 17:45 → PHX 19:26 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2989 American	ORD 05:04	PHX 06:57	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 2164 United Flight history →	ORD 11:12	PHX 13:05	18%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 2795 United	ORD 07:16	PHX 09:03	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 769 American Flight history →	ORD 07:25	PHX 09:09	21%	5%	1.4%	86%
UA 2225 United Flight history →	ORD 09:02	PHX 11:03	22%	7%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
AA 2192 American	ORD 10:37	PHX 12:33	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1706 United	ORD 14:08	PHX 15:52	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ORD 16:02	PHX 17:53	24%	10%	0.6%	79%
AA 1640 American Flight history →	ORD 13:42	PHX 15:37	24%	9%	1.3%	81%
UA 602 United Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PHX 22:27	24%	11%	0.7%	70%
AA 3277 American	ORD 20:54	PHX 22:53	24%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 2015 United	ORD 15:59	PHX 17:43	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 2624 American Flight history →	ORD 15:22	PHX 17:05	26%	9%	1.1%	70%
AA 2554 American Flight history →	ORD 19:14	PHX 21:10	28%	9%	1.3%	79%
AA 1767 American	ORD 18:17	PHX 20:17	28%	12%	2.5%	no record
AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	PHX 00:14	29%	8%	1.4%	55%
AA 3137 American Flight history →	ORD 17:45	PHX 19:26	31%	13%	4.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON