Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3656 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 06:43 → PIT 09:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2671 ORD 17:18 → PIT 19:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 06:43	PIT 09:37	6%	3%	1.5%	no record
AA 4467 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:19	PIT 13:03	12%	3%	1.3%	82%
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	12%	4%	0.8%	88%
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:40	PIT 15:23	13%	5%	1.5%	89%
AA 4478 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:20	PIT 11:07	13%	3%	2.0%	92%
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:40	PIT 23:22	14%	6%	1.8%	73%
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	15%	5%	2.0%	80%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:44	PIT 13:18	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	19%	10%	0.7%	72%
AA 2675 American	ORD 12:28	PIT 15:07	20%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 1051 American	ORD 20:44	PIT 23:30	25%	11%	1.7%	no record
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:10	PIT 18:45	26%	13%	2.5%	no record
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	26%	14%	1.5%	64%
AA 2671 American	ORD 17:18	PIT 19:57	28%	15%	5.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON