Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 5232 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day OO 5232 ORD 07:15 → PWM 11:02 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1264 ORD 18:11 → PWM 21:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 07:15	PWM 11:02	14%	7%	2.0%	no record
YX 3662 Republic	ORD 14:58	PWM 18:37	18%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:03	PWM 16:42	18%	6%	1.6%	92%worse than usual
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	19%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 4504 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:16	PWM 23:30	23%	9%	2.1%	69%
AA 2717 American	ORD 09:38	PWM 13:06	26%	7%	1.6%	no record
UA 1264 United	ORD 18:11	PWM 21:34	32%	17%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON