Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3573 ORD 09:57 → RAP 11:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4997 ORD 16:21 → RAP 17:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3573 Envoy	ORD 09:57	RAP 11:35	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2050 United	ORD 09:00	RAP 10:23	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4997 SkyWest	ORD 16:21	RAP 17:56	15%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON