Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4354 at 08:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4354 ORD 08:18 → RDU 11:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2167 ORD 20:56 → RDU 23:59 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4354 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:18	RDU 11:38	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
YX 3600 Republic	ORD 09:32	RDU 12:50	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2616 United Flight history →	ORD 10:48	RDU 14:01	7%	2%	0.5%	84%
OO 5764 SkyWest	ORD 07:50	RDU 11:07	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:02	RDU 19:16	9%	2%	0.6%	65%
UA 1142 United	ORD 13:07	RDU 16:12	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2091 United Flight history →	ORD 14:13	RDU 17:27	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
AA 2732 American	ORD 11:04	RDU 14:18	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1989 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	RDU 21:37	16%	4%	0.5%	53%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	ORD 14:35	RDU 17:43	17%	4%	0.7%	74%
AA 600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:58	RDU 00:17	19%	5%	0.7%	50%
AA 2167 American Flight history →	ORD 20:56	RDU 23:59	23%	5%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON