Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3532 at 10:53 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day YX 3532 ORD 10:53 → RIC 14:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1288 ORD 19:02 → RIC 22:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3532 Republic	ORD 10:53	RIC 14:16	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3523 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:30	RIC 17:49	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
AA 2737 American	ORD 08:58	RIC 12:10	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 6249 SkyWest	ORD 16:57	RIC 19:58	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1583 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	RIC 21:27	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
AA 1288 American	ORD 19:02	RIC 22:12	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 4427 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 07:43	RIC 11:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON