tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1993 United ORD 11:04 RNO 13:26 14% 4% 0.6% no record
SY 8273 Sun Country ORD 18:08 RNO 20:24 21% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 38m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 8h 39m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 24m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 8h 56m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → RNO 13:17AA 324 9h 13m 99% 86%
FrontierDetails → ORD 13:16 → LAS 15:26F9 3647 3h 04m Las Vegas LAS 18:30 → RNO 20:02F9 4241 8h 46m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911 7h 11m 98% 86%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 1h 26m Portland PDX 18:13 → RNO 19:44AS 1324 7h 32m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:54 → DFW 19:35AA 2499 2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273 9h 04m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON