Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1740 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1740 ORD 07:05 → RSW 11:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2561 ORD 12:34 → RSW 16:35 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1740 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	RSW 11:14	9%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 1036 United Flight history →	ORD 09:22	RSW 13:18	13%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 2437 American Flight history →	ORD 06:52	RSW 11:06	13%	5%	1.8%	47%
UA 2137 United	ORD 11:05	RSW 15:07	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2618 United Flight history →	ORD 16:26	RSW 20:34	18%	8%	1.0%	71%
AA 3238 American Flight history →	ORD 19:00	RSW 22:54	19%	10%	2.1%	67%
AA 2561 American Flight history →	ORD 12:34	RSW 16:35	22%	10%	2.1%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON