Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2428 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2428 ORD 07:01 → SAN 09:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1861 ORD 19:02 → SAN 21:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2428 United Flight history →	ORD 07:01	SAN 09:29	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 660 United Flight history →	ORD 08:46	SAN 11:21	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	ORD 06:50	SAN 09:27	11%	2%	0.7%	84%
UA 559 United	ORD 13:42	SAN 16:00	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2138 United	ORD 16:26	SAN 18:51	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1447 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:20	SAN 16:59	15%	3%	0.7%	70%
AA 1543 American Flight history →	ORD 15:12	SAN 17:42	15%	4%	0.7%	68%
UA 1564 United	ORD 20:09	SAN 22:22	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2131 American Flight history →	ORD 09:56	SAN 12:28	16%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 2994 American	ORD 21:07	SAN 23:33	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1470 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 07:46	SAN 09:43	18%	2%	0.7%	75%
AA 1861 American Flight history →	ORD 19:02	SAN 21:44	18%	5%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON