Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4054 ORD 08:17 → SAV 11:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1191 ORD 17:08 → SAV 20:26 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4054 Envoy	ORD 08:17	SAV 11:46	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 694 United	ORD 07:46	SAV 11:10	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1612 United Flight history →	ORD 11:12	SAV 14:38	8%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 3496 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SAV 21:56	12%	3%	0.7%	71%
UA 1191 United	ORD 17:08	SAV 20:26	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON