tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 16:12, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 10:19 SBA 12:52 11% 5% 0.7% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:09 → SBA 11:42AA 1822 8h 42m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 44m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 9h 02m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 12m Los Angeles LAX 12:45 → SBA 13:41UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest 8h 41m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 9h 19m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 8h 26m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 9h 47m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:42 → PHX 15:36AA 1640 1h 30m Phoenix PHX 17:06 → SBA 18:54AA 1855 7h 12m 86% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:51UA 246 1h 38m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 42m 98% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON