Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3672 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–10%.

Safest bet that day YX 3672 ORD 07:09 → SDF 09:28 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4940 ORD 15:04 → SDF 17:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3672 Republic	ORD 07:09	SDF 09:28	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3582 Envoy	ORD 07:10	SDF 09:33	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 11:16	SDF 13:39	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:51	SDF 19:30	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:29	SDF 22:04	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	9%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
OO 5728 SkyWest	ORD 10:39	SDF 13:02	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4940 SkyWest	ORD 15:04	SDF 17:27	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON