Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2041 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2041 ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 583 ORD 08:06 → SEA 10:23 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2041 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:55	SEA 09:27	12%	2%	0.8%	74%
AS 587 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 05:59	SEA 08:25	13%	2%	1.2%	64%
UA 341 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	SEA 09:40	15%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 2966 American	ORD 10:04	SEA 12:57	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 2099 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	SEA 11:38	20%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 3105 American Flight history →	ORD 07:21	SEA 10:16	21%	5%	1.1%	44%
UA 1660 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	SEA 16:09	21%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 1801 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SEA 19:06	21%	8%	0.6%	73%
AA 1476 American	ORD 12:03	SEA 14:58	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 3231 American	ORD 21:28	SEA 00:18	21%	6%	1.5%	no record
DL 1564 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:00	SEA 15:44	24%	6%	0.8%	65%
UA 8211 United	ORD 20:46	SEA 23:11	26%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 2211 United Flight history →	ORD 20:04	SEA 22:25	27%	8%	0.8%	59%
AS 407 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 15:43	SEA 18:22	28%	6%	1.0%	68%
AS 579 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 13:01	SEA 15:42	28%	6%	1.0%	86%worse than usual
AA 2392 American	ORD 18:34	SEA 21:02	30%	10%	3.3%	no record
DL 1205 Delta	ORD 17:47	SEA 20:14	31%	9%	2.5%	no record
AS 337 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 19:36	SEA 21:57	35%	7%	1.3%	49%
AS 583 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 08:06	SEA 10:23	38%	4%	1.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON