Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 246 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 246 ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2179 ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 246 United Flight history →	ORD 06:10	SFO 08:51	9%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 2885 American	ORD 06:49	SFO 09:45	12%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 1116 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	SFO 10:19	16%	4%	0.8%	87%
UA 543 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	SFO 13:14	22%	8%	0.7%	63%
AA 1851 American	ORD 09:49	SFO 12:50	22%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 2106 United Flight history →	ORD 21:35	SFO 00:32	23%	8%	0.9%	78%
UA 342 United	ORD 08:28	SFO 10:51	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1334 United Flight history →	ORD 15:26	SFO 18:18	25%	10%	0.7%	66%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	SFO 17:19	26%	10%	0.7%	74%
UA 1097 United Flight history →	ORD 12:33	SFO 14:51	26%	8%	0.7%	79%
AA 3115 American Flight history →	ORD 08:29	SFO 11:05	26%	6%	1.2%	93%worse than usual
AA 2817 American	ORD 13:31	SFO 16:29	27%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 2437 United	ORD 16:21	SFO 19:03	27%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 649 United	ORD 19:38	SFO 23:17	28%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1253 American Flight history →	ORD 15:18	SFO 17:58	28%	11%	1.0%	70%
AA 2856 American	ORD 19:03	SFO 22:03	30%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 3202 American	ORD 21:05	SFO 23:43	30%	8%	1.5%	no record
UA 8195 United	ORD 20:30	SFO 23:06	31%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 3141 American Flight history →	ORD 17:08	SFO 19:47	33%	13%	4.0%	57%
UA 2179 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	SFO 21:18	34%	14%	1.4%	48%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	6h 18m	94%	80%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	48m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 20m	81%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON