tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 307 United ORD 09:07 SJC 11:28 10% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 481 United Flight history → ORD 19:58 SJC 22:43 16% 5% 0.7% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 53m Denver DEN 11:35 → SJC 13:20UA 1256 9h 20m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 00m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 9h 27m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:04 → SJC 10:56AA 2046 7h 56m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769 1h 53m Phoenix PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 7h 44m 96% 89%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 3h 47m Portland PDX 20:34 → SJC 22:26AS 755 10h 14m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:04 → SJC 13:54AA 2834 9h 50m 99% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579 51m Seattle SEA 16:33 → SJC 18:40AS 521 7h 39m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON