Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2145 ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 1828 ORD 19:58 → SMF 22:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2145 United Flight history →	ORD 09:04	SMF 11:51	16%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 1906 American	ORD 11:49	SMF 14:34	17%	7%	0.9%	no record
UA 1519 United	ORD 16:26	SMF 18:56	21%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	SMF 22:42	22%	10%	0.9%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 19m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	6h 35m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 31m	89%	82%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:55 → MSP 17:40DL 1533	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 18:45 → SMF 20:35DL 574	6h 40m	80%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON