Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1179 ORD 17:50 → SNA 20:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
AA 1920 American	ORD 08:12	SNA 10:49	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	12%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:16	SNA 18:50	14%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 1916 American	ORD 11:56	SNA 14:27	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SNA 20:25	15%	3%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	97%	89%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:21 → SNA 09:45AA 2114	6h 45m	93%	83%
American Details →	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	1h 03m Phoenix	PHX 10:12 → SNA 11:40AA 2454	6h 15m	89%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON