Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3680 Republic	ORD 07:22	SRQ 10:57	14%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 2287 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	SRQ 15:12	15%	5%	1.2%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:56DL 3109	7h 36m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 14m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09DL 2767	1h 19m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	6h 33m	98%	82%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:28AA 1452	6h 21m	99%	80%
American Details →	ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:30AA 1409	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:06AA 2604	6h 45m	97%	74%
American Details →	ORD 16:37 → MIA 21:01AA 2323	1h 53m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	6h 22m	93%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON