Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1044 at 10:54 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 ORD 10:54 → STL 12:21 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1625 ORD 19:41 → STL 20:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1044 United	ORD 10:54	STL 12:21	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2818 American	ORD 09:03	STL 10:31	20%	6%	1.4%	no record
YX 4645 Republic	ORD 15:33	STL 17:07	20%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 3069 American Flight history →	ORD 22:55	STL 00:19	21%	7%	1.6%	62%
UA 2000 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	STL 15:46	21%	7%	0.7%	68%
OO 5696 SkyWest	ORD 12:51	STL 14:14	26%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 2444 American	ORD 19:16	STL 20:40	26%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 6355 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:09	STL 13:33	27%	8%	1.3%	67%
UA 1625 United	ORD 19:41	STL 20:58	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 4581 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:55	STL 14:23	20%	6%	4.2%	80%
UA 4613 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 09:00	STL 10:34	25%	13%	1.7%	75%
UA 4576 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	STL 23:29	30%	17%	6.5%	70%
UA 4518 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:45	STL 18:13	33%	18%	3.5%	67%
UA 4416 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 15:59	STL 17:27	37%	19%	3.9%	63%
UA 4412 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	STL 19:23	44%	22%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON