tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Hailey on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest 7h 46m 98% 92%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:25UA 2373 3h 11m Los Angeles LAX 11:36 → SUN 15:00UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest 10h 00m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:44 → SUN 13:47UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest 7h 42m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577 1h 36m San Francisco SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 92% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:55 → SFO 18:08UA 1334 47m San Francisco SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 71% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON